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Commercial Intelligence
Understand where your profit is really made.
Evidence-backed decision intelligence for commercial directors, finance leaders, managing directors, quantity surveyors, commercial managers, estimators and operations teams.
This does not replace commercial managers. It gives them traceable insight using the information the business already owns.
AI investigation
Why has Project Alpha lost margin?
Project Alpha margin has fallen from 18.5% to 8.7% because subcontractor cost, preliminaries and uncertified variation recovery have moved faster than approved revenue.
High confidence 91%
Margin Analysis
The largest movement is GBP 184k in MedTech subcontractor cost, followed by GBP 96k in preliminaries and GBP 43k in materials. GBP 192k of submitted variation value appears recoverable but is not yet certified.
Risk
The immediate risk is accepting disputed invoice cost before V-014 and V-019 are evidenced, which would crystallise avoidable margin loss.
Forecast
If no recovery is achieved, year-end margin remains 8.7%. If the highest-confidence variation value is certified, forecast margin improves toward 13.1%.
Recommendation
Commercial Director should review V-014 evidence pack and MedTech disputed labour this week, then instruct a revised application before the next certification cycle.
Selected project
NCE-ALPHA-24
Margin erosion is concentrated in MedTech subcontractor cost, preliminaries and uncertified theatre isolation variations.
Original margin18.5%
Forecast margin8.7%
Outstanding variationsGBP 276k
Cash positionGBP -214k
Margin explorer
Original estimate to forecast variance
Each line shows estimate, current cost, forecast, variance, explanation and supporting evidence.
4100Critical
MedTech specialist subcontractor packageEstimate GBP 1.1mCurrent GBP 1.3mForecast GBP 1.3mVariance GBP -184k
Shift premiums and rework have been invoiced before all client instruction evidence has been converted into approved variation recovery.
2100Elevated
Extended preliminaries and site managementEstimate GBP 318kCurrent GBP 398kForecast GBP 414kVariance GBP -96k
Access sequencing has extended site duration, but only part of the cost has been captured in pending variations.
3200Watch
Clinical isolation materialsEstimate GBP 486kCurrent GBP 521kForecast GBP 529kVariance GBP -43k
Material cost variance is partially offset by approved redesign value but still above tender allowance.
Cash flow
Applications, payments and debt
Variations
Submitted, approved and pending
Prioritised recommendations
Business value, owner, confidence and evidence
Priority 1Critical
Recover Project Alpha theatre isolation valueProtects Alpha margin and accelerates GBP 124k commercial value into certification.
Priority 2Elevated
Challenge MedTech disputed labour before accepting invoice costPrevents avoidable margin loss and strengthens variation recovery position.
Priority 3Critical
Escalate Delta valuation basisReduces critical margin risk and unlocks GBP 168k outstanding debt path.
Priority 4Watch
Reforecast portfolio after certified variation decisionsImproves confidence in year-end margin and cash guidance.
Trust layer
Source data is visible
ERPInvoicesForecastVariation LogsCommercial MinutesReasoningConfidenceEvaluationTrace
Reasoning and evaluation
Traceable decision path
Azure architecture